Speech Presentation
The notes page isn't there, but you should be able to get a good idea of what they said. My favorite line was from page 9: "not so innocent and harmless anymore is he?".
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Texas Board of Education: no consensus on global warming
"Both sides should be presented in order to provide a more balanced view". I can't tell you how wrong this is! Global warming isn't an opinion issue, it's not like we get to decide whether or not it's actually happening. It's happening! That's a fact, that's not something that depends on whether or not we "believe" it.
There's been a clear consensus by scientists who study climate change for over 20 years that anthropogenic climate change is real and is happening. Bush Jr. took the White House in 01, and promptly decided that he didn't believe in anthropogenic global warming. So he appointed his own scientists to look into the IPCC's findings (link). And guess what? They found that the conclusions of the IPCC were totally correct.
How someone has the arrogance to dismiss the conclusion of nearly every single scientist who studies climate change as "inconclusive" is beyond me. Yes, the average internet user can find forums and blog postings that have clever bullet points that appear to conclusively say global warming is a "hoax". Yes, the average internet user probably can't refute those bullet points.
Guess what? That's why we ask the opinions of actual scientists who've actually made a career of studying the climate. And they nearly all agree: anthropogenic climate change is a reality, and it's harder to fix the longer we wait.
What's the appropriate response in the face of overwhelming evidence and expert opinion? Laugh, get the snide smirk that the guy in the video does at 19 seconds, and dismiss reality as if that were an option.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Destructive Discussions
Why is all political discussion designed to divide, inflame, and reaffirm existing beliefs? There's so much middle ground in politics, and yet people are encouraged to demonize people with a different label. For example, the stimulus package was about 60% tax cuts and 40% spending. So in reality the stimulus package wasn't overwhelmingly liberal or conservative. It was remarkably mainstream. Liberals – broadly speaking – support the Keynesian notion that in a recession temporary increased government spending is the correct thing to do. Conservatives – broadly speaking – support the theory that providing tax cuts let the individuals decide how to spend their money, individuals always know how better to spend their money than the government, etc. Personally I believe that the Keynesian model is correct, but there are plenty of people that disagree with me and that’s fine. My problem is that instead of discussing the pros and cons of stimulus, or how best to deliver stimulus, the right often characterizes the stimulus package as a deficit-adding left-wing shameful giveaway. They repeat stories of absurd uses of the money which are later debunked. They create this fake idea and then suddenly reality isn't being discussed, people are arguing over illusions. The problem is that most people don’t listen critically to their political party or news channel of preference. That lack of thinking critically and investigating the facts lead people to support or condemn a policy not based on principle or reality but based solely on perception.
The healthcare bill is basically mandating coverage and providing tax subsidies to people who can't afford it. How it’s paid for: Medicare Part A coverage will be raised on individuals making more than 200,000$ per year by 0.9%; unearned income (dividends, interest, etc) will have a new tax of 3.8 percent if you’re an individual making more than 200,000$ per year; a “Cadillac” tax on high-end health insurance plans; Drug manufacturers, hospitals, and medical device manufacturers will have a tax (the idea is that they can afford to pay a fee if they have 40 million new customers); a tanning tax; Medicare cuts (again, the idea is that with 40 million new patients they will have a larger profit margin and thus able to afford a tax). If the goal of healthcare reform is to expand coverage, it only works if the healthy and unhealthy join the pool. I think a better way to expand coverage would be a public option, but that’s not what happened. Instead we mandated private coverage and gave subsidies.
That's the exact same theme that Mitt Romney (GOP presidential candidate) used to sign the healthcare bill in MA, and the same theme that the GOP proposed in response to the public option during Clinton's presidency. The GOP argument went something like this: “The public option is socialist; we want to pick our own health insurance and not be subjected to death panels or have government bureaucrats between us and our doctors. Therefore the responsibility should be on the individual and they should have tax assistance from the government”. If this argument was a matter of principle, then it should be supported today. The GOP no longer supports their argument, so that raises the question of what changed. The only answer I can think of is that President Obama is now in favor of that plan; therefore the GOP is now against it. Their behavior doesn't reflect principled opinions; it reflects putting their own political futures ahead of everyone and everything. People may disagree with the healthcare bill, but characterizing expanding private coverage as a socialist government take-over of healthcare is inaccurate. I don’t have a problem with people who disagree with me; my problem is when people disagree with a phantom idea. It’s frustrating to have to defend something non-existent.
It seems like today everyone is arguing about ridiculous meaningless things. There are substantial differences between conservatives and liberals. For example, are property taxes appropriate given the struggle between property rights and the desire to have a progressive tax system? Or, does the good generated by giving corporations tax cuts to lure them to a city (increased employment, increased tax revenue by those new employees) outweigh the unfairness of a corporation receiving a tax cut while small businesses and individuals don't get the same benefits? There are legitimate questions of how to govern - at every level of government - that aren't being discussed and problems not being solved because silly inflammatory things are being talked about. For example, was President Obama born in the United States? Will the healthcare bill bankrupt America? Is President Obama a socialist? Why is the tax system set up like it is, is it unfair? Why are the democrats jamming bills down America's throat without consent? Is America now disarmed (spoiler alert: we are)? All of these questions can be answered easily with factual evidence (or in the case of opinion-related questions, they can be discussed using actual figures and facts), but reasonable discussion can only take place if one has an open mind and genuinely seeks answers.
All too often people search for anything to reaffirm their initial opinions and along the way they disregard any new evidence. It's uncomfortable to change one's mind and learn new things, but not doing so is dangerous in the long term. I regularly read Greg Mankiw (conservative economist at Harvard) and Keith Hennessey (senior White House economic advisor to President George W. Bush) not because I agree with most of their conclusions, but because they have actual things to say, things of substance. I think Paul Krugman is remarkable, but I don’t want to limit myself to only his opinion. I encourage all of y’all to find some people of substance from across the political spectrum, and pay more attention to reasonable people and less to RNC or DNC chairmen.
Politicians and the media benefit from controversy and have chosen a strategy of creating an absence of reasonable thought. The masterful part of it is that instead of acknowledging that each side has good points the narrative goes something like this: the other side is trying to (steal your money / kill the poor) only an idiot would think (you can tax small business indefinitely / minorities are worthless) although in fairness I admit that (they have good intentions / they know how to vote in lockstep). Narratives like that are only designed to increase divisiveness and controversy; unfortunately it’s also often a typical narrative.
Instead of trying to find ways to work together and benefit the nation (or state, city, etc), political leaders often decide to use inflammatory divisive language to get more votes on the next election. That's damaging the political system, the nation, and Americans. The antidote is knowledge and open-mindedness, ironically the same attributes being discouraged by most politicians, most media, and our natural desire to be right regardless of the facts.
The healthcare bill is basically mandating coverage and providing tax subsidies to people who can't afford it. How it’s paid for: Medicare Part A coverage will be raised on individuals making more than 200,000$ per year by 0.9%; unearned income (dividends, interest, etc) will have a new tax of 3.8 percent if you’re an individual making more than 200,000$ per year; a “Cadillac” tax on high-end health insurance plans; Drug manufacturers, hospitals, and medical device manufacturers will have a tax (the idea is that they can afford to pay a fee if they have 40 million new customers); a tanning tax; Medicare cuts (again, the idea is that with 40 million new patients they will have a larger profit margin and thus able to afford a tax). If the goal of healthcare reform is to expand coverage, it only works if the healthy and unhealthy join the pool. I think a better way to expand coverage would be a public option, but that’s not what happened. Instead we mandated private coverage and gave subsidies.
That's the exact same theme that Mitt Romney (GOP presidential candidate) used to sign the healthcare bill in MA, and the same theme that the GOP proposed in response to the public option during Clinton's presidency. The GOP argument went something like this: “The public option is socialist; we want to pick our own health insurance and not be subjected to death panels or have government bureaucrats between us and our doctors. Therefore the responsibility should be on the individual and they should have tax assistance from the government”. If this argument was a matter of principle, then it should be supported today. The GOP no longer supports their argument, so that raises the question of what changed. The only answer I can think of is that President Obama is now in favor of that plan; therefore the GOP is now against it. Their behavior doesn't reflect principled opinions; it reflects putting their own political futures ahead of everyone and everything. People may disagree with the healthcare bill, but characterizing expanding private coverage as a socialist government take-over of healthcare is inaccurate. I don’t have a problem with people who disagree with me; my problem is when people disagree with a phantom idea. It’s frustrating to have to defend something non-existent.
It seems like today everyone is arguing about ridiculous meaningless things. There are substantial differences between conservatives and liberals. For example, are property taxes appropriate given the struggle between property rights and the desire to have a progressive tax system? Or, does the good generated by giving corporations tax cuts to lure them to a city (increased employment, increased tax revenue by those new employees) outweigh the unfairness of a corporation receiving a tax cut while small businesses and individuals don't get the same benefits? There are legitimate questions of how to govern - at every level of government - that aren't being discussed and problems not being solved because silly inflammatory things are being talked about. For example, was President Obama born in the United States? Will the healthcare bill bankrupt America? Is President Obama a socialist? Why is the tax system set up like it is, is it unfair? Why are the democrats jamming bills down America's throat without consent? Is America now disarmed (spoiler alert: we are)? All of these questions can be answered easily with factual evidence (or in the case of opinion-related questions, they can be discussed using actual figures and facts), but reasonable discussion can only take place if one has an open mind and genuinely seeks answers.
All too often people search for anything to reaffirm their initial opinions and along the way they disregard any new evidence. It's uncomfortable to change one's mind and learn new things, but not doing so is dangerous in the long term. I regularly read Greg Mankiw (conservative economist at Harvard) and Keith Hennessey (senior White House economic advisor to President George W. Bush) not because I agree with most of their conclusions, but because they have actual things to say, things of substance. I think Paul Krugman is remarkable, but I don’t want to limit myself to only his opinion. I encourage all of y’all to find some people of substance from across the political spectrum, and pay more attention to reasonable people and less to RNC or DNC chairmen.
Politicians and the media benefit from controversy and have chosen a strategy of creating an absence of reasonable thought. The masterful part of it is that instead of acknowledging that each side has good points the narrative goes something like this: the other side is trying to (steal your money / kill the poor) only an idiot would think (you can tax small business indefinitely / minorities are worthless) although in fairness I admit that (they have good intentions / they know how to vote in lockstep). Narratives like that are only designed to increase divisiveness and controversy; unfortunately it’s also often a typical narrative.
Instead of trying to find ways to work together and benefit the nation (or state, city, etc), political leaders often decide to use inflammatory divisive language to get more votes on the next election. That's damaging the political system, the nation, and Americans. The antidote is knowledge and open-mindedness, ironically the same attributes being discouraged by most politicians, most media, and our natural desire to be right regardless of the facts.
Shhh... Don't let the other countries know that America is now disarmed
President Obama has revised the Nuclear Posture Review, defining when it's acceptable for the US to use nuclear weapons. Basically, it says that the US won't use nuclear weapons first against countries that are non-nuclear or countries that are in compliance with the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. That means that there's no change in policy concerning North Korea, Israel, India, or Pakistan. The US won't use nuclear weapons first against almost all countries, that hardly seems unreasonable given 1) the devastating nature of nuclear weapons and 2) the fact that nuclear weapons have only been used twice in all of history. The US accounts for 40% of the worlds defense spending (and defense spending in the US continues to rise under President Obama), so it's ridiculous to argue that America lacks the non-nuclear ability to defend itself. Regardless, we still have thousands of nuclear weapons, the question is whether we should use nuclear weapons to respond to a non-nuclear state using biological weapons. I think it's obvious that we have plenty of levels of response before resorting to the weapons of last resort.
In order to come up with the NPR, one has to begin by finding out the biggest threat that nuclear weapons pose. I think we can all agree that one nuclear weapon in the hands of a terrorist poses a more real threat than 1500 in the hands of the Russian government. Therefore a strategy that acknowledges that threat is appropriate. The NPR realizes that rogue nuclear weapons pose the greater threat, and it still keeps thousands of weapons “because no Earth is better than an Earth without us” with the promise not to use them first on most nations is perfectly appropriate.
Of course, there's more than one way to look at it. Fox News brings the fair and balanced look by asking innocently and inquisitively “Now critics are asking, will the new deal leave the U.S. defenseless until it's too late?" then cutting to footage of a nuclear bomb exploding into a mushroom cloud.
In order to come up with the NPR, one has to begin by finding out the biggest threat that nuclear weapons pose. I think we can all agree that one nuclear weapon in the hands of a terrorist poses a more real threat than 1500 in the hands of the Russian government. Therefore a strategy that acknowledges that threat is appropriate. The NPR realizes that rogue nuclear weapons pose the greater threat, and it still keeps thousands of weapons “because no Earth is better than an Earth without us” with the promise not to use them first on most nations is perfectly appropriate.
Of course, there's more than one way to look at it. Fox News brings the fair and balanced look by asking innocently and inquisitively “Now critics are asking, will the new deal leave the U.S. defenseless until it's too late?" then cutting to footage of a nuclear bomb exploding into a mushroom cloud.
Monday, March 8, 2010
American Conservatives - a third party for liberty and freedom
I was bored, so I decided to read the http://theamericanconservatives.org platform and talk about why their platform is nonsensical and the worst kind of selfish.
“We reject the practice of using Government powers for any purpose of social engineering, and we uphold the principle that the individual is sovereign; where social conduct involves personal choices, the People are best served when those choices are embraced and defended at the family and community level.”
One might read this and think: Government social engineering sounds communistic and socialistic and while I may not understand fancy things I know I prefer vaguely comforting words to vaguely menacing words; and the morons in congress want to ru(i)n my life. Although one needs to add “the morons in both parties” so it's reasonable.
Someone might see businesses that only serve certain races, or neighborhoods only accept a single race, or schools that only accept one race, and think how great everything is. They might even genuinely believe that the cost of preventing social engineering is watching through the window of a restaurant while “the blacks” eat out back. But I'd wager no one who has ever been turned away from every restaurant in their own city walks away thinking how great it is that they have the personal choice to be served from the back entrance of Denny's.
“Persons who are not citizens or resident aliens of the United States have no right to petition or benefit from any agency of the government except for petition of entry or asylum”
This makes perfect sense because people don't have intrinsic rights, they have rights because the government gives them rights and can take them away. Just don't look at the “the government doesn't give us rights we deserve them because we're people” section of the platform.
“Each adult citizen is responsible for the health, education and welfare of himself or herself and their family.”
And if some people happen to be born with a chronic illness, or in a neighborhood with broken schools, or a neighborhood where the only way to make money is to join a gang or deal drugs, and they are essentially doomed to a lifetime of poverty then that's just the cost of liberty. Don't forget, it's fair because the man making 300,000 dollars a year doesn't get to send his kids to free school either.
“We believe the proliferation of dangerous weapons (including WMD) has created a need to act against threats before they are capable of being fulfilled. We support preemption”
Once you establish suspicion as a basis for war, there's rarely any reason to ever not go to war. After all, what's the downside of sending young men to die for you overseas? Better safe than sorry, even if that means soldiers and civilians that don't look like you have to die.
“Eliminate the Department of Education, Terminate No Child Left Behind initiative and terminate federal support of the Head Start Programs”
If there's a bigger waste of money than trying to educate stupid poor people I have yet to see it. If they want to better themselves then they need to take responsibility for themselves and get their own kids private tutors like we do.
“The income tax on individuals can impose an undue burden on those earning minimal incomes. We believe a flat tax with significant personal exemptions offers the best opportunity to distribute the burden fairly.”
This makes sense as long as one assumed the problem with taxes is that the rich pay too much and the poor don't pay enough. Oh wait, their first sentence nullifies all real-world experience and studies about showing how the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer because they says so.
“We reject the practice of using Government powers for any purpose of social engineering, and we uphold the principle that the individual is sovereign; where social conduct involves personal choices, the People are best served when those choices are embraced and defended at the family and community level.”
One might read this and think: Government social engineering sounds communistic and socialistic and while I may not understand fancy things I know I prefer vaguely comforting words to vaguely menacing words; and the morons in congress want to ru(i)n my life. Although one needs to add “the morons in both parties” so it's reasonable.
Someone might see businesses that only serve certain races, or neighborhoods only accept a single race, or schools that only accept one race, and think how great everything is. They might even genuinely believe that the cost of preventing social engineering is watching through the window of a restaurant while “the blacks” eat out back. But I'd wager no one who has ever been turned away from every restaurant in their own city walks away thinking how great it is that they have the personal choice to be served from the back entrance of Denny's.
“Persons who are not citizens or resident aliens of the United States have no right to petition or benefit from any agency of the government except for petition of entry or asylum”
This makes perfect sense because people don't have intrinsic rights, they have rights because the government gives them rights and can take them away. Just don't look at the “the government doesn't give us rights we deserve them because we're people” section of the platform.
“Each adult citizen is responsible for the health, education and welfare of himself or herself and their family.”
And if some people happen to be born with a chronic illness, or in a neighborhood with broken schools, or a neighborhood where the only way to make money is to join a gang or deal drugs, and they are essentially doomed to a lifetime of poverty then that's just the cost of liberty. Don't forget, it's fair because the man making 300,000 dollars a year doesn't get to send his kids to free school either.
“We believe the proliferation of dangerous weapons (including WMD) has created a need to act against threats before they are capable of being fulfilled. We support preemption”
Once you establish suspicion as a basis for war, there's rarely any reason to ever not go to war. After all, what's the downside of sending young men to die for you overseas? Better safe than sorry, even if that means soldiers and civilians that don't look like you have to die.
“Eliminate the Department of Education, Terminate No Child Left Behind initiative and terminate federal support of the Head Start Programs”
If there's a bigger waste of money than trying to educate stupid poor people I have yet to see it. If they want to better themselves then they need to take responsibility for themselves and get their own kids private tutors like we do.
“The income tax on individuals can impose an undue burden on those earning minimal incomes. We believe a flat tax with significant personal exemptions offers the best opportunity to distribute the burden fairly.”
This makes sense as long as one assumed the problem with taxes is that the rich pay too much and the poor don't pay enough. Oh wait, their first sentence nullifies all real-world experience and studies about showing how the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer because they says so.
The ICC
I hear a lot of conservatives say that they want America to be sovereign, and that means not adhering to the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. They seem to imply that by joining we would be giving up our justice system, our very sovereignty, our ability to decide our own laws and punishment. There's two reasons why this is a ridiculous argument:
The ICC has received has indicted 14 people in it's 8 years of existence, and of those 14 only 5 are alive and have a court date. All of those indicted are indicted because they committed genocide or other egregious war crimes. The justice system in their nation has, for whatever reason, been unable to successfully prosecute them hence the ICC is. The implication that it will somehow usurp the US justice system is absurd once one knows the most basic facts about the ICC.
How can someone argue against the international rule of law? Specifically, how can someone argue for rule of law, just so long as we are exempt. In fact everyone else should follow it, but we don't have to because, you know, we we're such good people we don't need to anyway. How can we hope to have a moral superiority when we don't support prosecution of war criminals and people who commit genocide?
The ICC has received has indicted 14 people in it's 8 years of existence, and of those 14 only 5 are alive and have a court date. All of those indicted are indicted because they committed genocide or other egregious war crimes. The justice system in their nation has, for whatever reason, been unable to successfully prosecute them hence the ICC is. The implication that it will somehow usurp the US justice system is absurd once one knows the most basic facts about the ICC.
How can someone argue against the international rule of law? Specifically, how can someone argue for rule of law, just so long as we are exempt. In fact everyone else should follow it, but we don't have to because, you know, we we're such good people we don't need to anyway. How can we hope to have a moral superiority when we don't support prosecution of war criminals and people who commit genocide?
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Healthcare delivery styles
Socialized healthcare: The government hires the doctors and nurses, build the hospitals, every citizen has free (paid in the form of taxes of every citizen not per-visit individual paid) healthcare.
Universal coverage: Doctors and nurses work for private companies, private companies build the hospitals, every citizen has free (paid by taxes) healthcare.
Private coverage: Doctors and nurses work for private companies, one can only afford to go to the doctor by paying for insurance.
What's being proposed in a nutshell is expanding private coverage by using private insurance companies to cover almost all citizens. That's about as far from “government run healthcare” and as weak as “reform” can get and still be called reform. Yet, the GOP is still pretending that they are the only thing standing between a hardworking individual and a socialist nightmare being rammed down America's throat in the dead of night with backroom deals and sweetheart deals that aren't on C-SPAN. In reality the GOP is standing between sick people and doctors while warning of “government bureaucrats standing in between you and your doctor”.
Providing an insurance pool run by the government such as the “public option” open to any citizen was criticized as being too radical of an idea by the GOP, and they managed to quash it. In all fairness though it is a radical idea to anyone from 1910, or anyone that's never had to choose between a mortgage or medicine.
Universal coverage: Doctors and nurses work for private companies, private companies build the hospitals, every citizen has free (paid by taxes) healthcare.
Private coverage: Doctors and nurses work for private companies, one can only afford to go to the doctor by paying for insurance.
What's being proposed in a nutshell is expanding private coverage by using private insurance companies to cover almost all citizens. That's about as far from “government run healthcare” and as weak as “reform” can get and still be called reform. Yet, the GOP is still pretending that they are the only thing standing between a hardworking individual and a socialist nightmare being rammed down America's throat in the dead of night with backroom deals and sweetheart deals that aren't on C-SPAN. In reality the GOP is standing between sick people and doctors while warning of “government bureaucrats standing in between you and your doctor”.
Providing an insurance pool run by the government such as the “public option” open to any citizen was criticized as being too radical of an idea by the GOP, and they managed to quash it. In all fairness though it is a radical idea to anyone from 1910, or anyone that's never had to choose between a mortgage or medicine.
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